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The bullpen was expected to be one of the questionable areas for Houston in 2022, but this bullpen boasts the top ERA in baseball. Every member of this relief staff has performed respectably, which is one of many reasons the Astros are rolling right now. Steve’s thoughts: Houston has climbed to the top of my bullpen rankings after opening the season No. Top performers: Ryne Stanek - 0.55 ERA, 9.5 Ks/9 Ryan Pressly - 20 saves in 30 appearances Here are my current bullpen ratings for all 30 teams, with each team’s beginning-of-year ranking (BOY) with some key stats (MLB rankings in parentheses) and comments. Seven of the bottom 10 bullpens are in negative unit territory (totaling a combined -44 units). Here’s a look at how my top-10 and bottom-10 bullpens have done this season in terms of net betting units:Īs you can see, eight of the top 10 bullpens are in positive unit territory as of Monday (producing a combined + 69.6 units of profit). However, if you have a good gauge for the talent levels and you monitor the key stats regularly, you’ll be able to understand the differences between bullpens.
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MIND BENDERS LEVEL 4 ANSWERS UPDATE
Keep in mind, these ratings will update consistently throughout the season, sometimes daily.
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In games with an SMBPR difference of 20 points or more, typically top-five bullpens versus bottom-five bullpens, the higher-rated team was 143-70 (67.1%) for + 17.58 units. This represents an ROI of 5.9%, a nice return for 6+ months of betting. In games with a Steve Makinen Bullpen Power Rating difference of 10 points or more, the higher-rated team was 582-349 (62.5%) for + 54.49 units. While not a positive ROI, it still easily beat the juice, which typically averages about 5%. By simply taking the team with the higher Steve Makinen Bullpen Power Rating, a bettor would have gone 1,358-1,049 (56.4%) for -8.16 units - there were 58 games with equal ratings - representing a loss of just 0.3%. Here’s a reminder of why bullpen strength and my power ratings are so important: I also use ballpark factors to accurately reflect the conditions pitchers operate in. They are devised from both statistics/performance and perception in the betting markets. There are many sophisticated stats out there, but the combination I choose to employ most is WHIP and strikeouts per 9 innings.īefore I update everyone with my current bullpen ratings, it’s important to note that the power ratings I’m using are the same ones that go into creating the daily strength ratings and projections you’ll find on all season long. Teams are treating their starters more carefully these days, and the extra-inning change in 2020 has only enhanced the importance of pitchers getting hitters out - and getting them out in dominant fashion - late in games. I am leaning on my bullpen ratings more than ever. Sometimes it helps to take a simple snapshot at various points of the season to remind ourselves how important bullpen handicapping is to betting success. Handicapping bullpens - their performance, usage and daily availability - is a key part of baseball betting. We’ve just come out of the MLB All-Star break and it’s a good time to check in on how each of the 30 bullpens are faring.